Jan 16 2007
Believe Data, not Models.
Table of contents for The Limits of Science
I recently wrote about what a scientific model is, and what are the limits of using models. Briefly, you can’t prove that the language used (logic) is consistent, and you can’t prove that the model really maps onto the world.
Now I want to talk about why it is important for scientists to understand this, and what happens when they don’t If you have ever spoken to anyone who has studied science (and if you are reading this the chances are you have) then you will probably be familiar with announcing that things are not possible. I remember once being told that it was not possible to heat a plate in a microwave, as they contain no water.
There is a fundamental problem here, and that is that it’s so easy to construct a model, and then accept it as some invariably true thing. The fact is that we never know if our models are true.
Let’s go back to the microwave comment. If our model of a microwave is that a it heats up the water in the object placed within it then you can follow that line of reasoning and say plates don’t contain water, so can’t be heated. There is just one problem, go and put a plate in the microwave. You will find out it gets hot.
So we need to reassess our model. Modify it, until it does predict what actually happened. In this case we need to add in the fact that there may be some water in the construction of the plate, and there will be some moisture in the air, which will heat up and then conduct heat into the plate. Now our model says that indeed the plate will get hot.
The point here is not how we adapt models though. The point is that far too often, we simply consider what our model says, and then announce what is possible, and what isn’t. Far too often do we fail to actually look to see.
This is the distinction between a good scientist, and a crap one. It can be as simple as saying “I don’t under stand how that could happen†instead of “that can’t happenâ€Â. Most scientists are good at this professionally, but slip into bad habits in their own internal thinking. We should always remember that our job is to try and explain what does happen, not to prescribe what will happen.






[...] Register « Believe Data, not Models. [...]